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Foreign Exchange News update by CMT

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Foreign Exchange News

As the markets digest the news of Friday’s stress test results it seems the pressing fears have been eased, at least for now. With seven banks, five from Spain, one from Germany and one from Greece failing the “tests”, designed to test for a return to negative growth and the onset of another recession; it seems not all is well. Granted the results could have been significantly worse but as predicted, question marks over the nature of the tests have been raised. With the requirements of the tests helping 24 banks just squeeze over the finish line it seems the limits were set at a rather convenient level. While they may provide a helping hand to the short term solidity of European banks it is only a baby step in convincing the markets that they are as secure as the EU will have you believe, in their attempt to encourage a series of bond purchases designed to improve the short term cash flow of the European countries under threat from market wolves. The Euro appreciated against the Dollar and the Yen as investors gain the ability to differentiate between the “good and bad banks”. While risk appetite seems to be slowly filtering back into the markets I feel there is still a lot of dirty laundry to be aired sooner rather than later.

Several weeks after embattled German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a stark warning over world finances and championed the need to reduce the burgeoning budget deficits so prominent across world economics it seems her attempts to convince the world over the credentials of austerity have failed to convince her detractors outside the Eurozone. After claiming an inability to survive another crisis unless a “path of sustainable growth” is followed, she has been accused of placing European growth potential under serious threat. While the UK, as a stand alone state, are able to adopt measures akin with their own financial pitfalls, each country has different needs and preferences. Attempting to balance budgets concurrently could prove disastrous.

Debate over everyone’s favourite term resurfaced over the weekend as the forecast for world growth suffered a major downgrade from the pre 2008 slump. With the U.S, China and Europe suffering deceleration it seems the outlook is less rosy. However with German Consumer Confidence figures at an all time high and the UK economy growing by 1.1% last quarter, combined with demand from emerging nations I feel the state of world economics to be far better than the doom and gloom merchants will have you believe.

US New Home Sales provide the main focus for today after this morning’s Australian PI q/q came in significantly worse than previously estimated.

With Pre-Season entering crunch time for players looking to secure their futures, the opening results for our top teams have not filled their managers with confidence. Big spending Manchester City continued their inauspicious start with their second consecutive loss in America. With everyone looking for them to fail I sense the chequebook will be opened several times before August 14th

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